IPS ontology for a PoT chain

How one Proof-of-Trust chain maps onto the Fractal Persistence Equation (FPE), what it preserves, what it scores, and how core predictions mirror aion-core core tasks.

Formal FPE: docs/glossary.md · Bridge essay: docs/geopolitics/predictive_governance_and_pot.md · Intra-node mirror: papers/society_of_aion_nodes.md · Payload types: data_content.md

1. One chain = one level-\(L\) IPS

Treat each PoT chain as a single information-persisting system \(\Sigma^{(L)}\): a society of Ed25519 participants (humans, agent fleets, operators) whose collective identity is the canonical git tree plus the append-only block payload.

PoT does not measure \(\mathcal{R}\) directly. It implements the Predictive Governance slice of FPE — public scored forecasts against resolved outcomes — and encodes the result as millitrust (mT, trustworthiness balance).

Design goal: when \(\Psi\) weakens, the society can still persist because power follows calibration, not popularity or apex decree alone.

2. Values vs facts

Do not collapse these. Norms are chosen constraints. Core predictions are testable bets about reality — the society’s reason for existing until scored. Generic society markets are optional side bets unless elevated to core status.

3. Four resolution channels (where \(D_{KL}\) is measured)

Each channel has: a question, private beliefs \(q_v\), trust-weighted market \(p_m\), realized outcome \(y\), and trust update

Hub note: code-proposal markets are real prediction markets but live under Proposals, not Markets, because they score substrate state, not arbitrary society questions.

Scoring reports are reconstructible from the canonical chain (whitepaper.md §7).

4. What the chain preserves

Use this inventory when onboarding operators, agents, or auditors.

Whitepaper §12: canonical history = friction → conflict → patch → trust update.

5. Members and power

Members

A member is an Ed25519 pubkey with:

• trust_mtrust balance
• optional label
• monotonic nonce for replay protection

Key holder = participant. There is no separate account layer.

How millitrust is power (numerator)

Temporary loss: wrong vs \(y\) → negative \(\Delta t\) before the world “proves you right”. Early accuracy: high \(q_v(y)\) when \(p_m(y)\) was low → large KL margin → durable standing.

Cost-adjusted trust (whitepaper §13): \(\Delta t_v = \alpha \cdot \text{margin} - \beta \cdot c_v\). Right but wastefully expensive deliberation can still lose net mT.

6. Core predictions — the society’s hypothesis (design)

What they are

A core prediction is not an arbitrary society market. It is the foundational hypothesis the chain exists to test — the bet about the world that, if true, justifies the society’s substrate, norms, and continued existence.

In IPS terms, it is the society’s internal model claim at level \(L\): a falsifiable statement whose truth or falsity the society measures with \(D_{KL}\) over time. While unresolved it may be a hypothesis (plausible, worth testing) or a delusion (wrong but not yet scored); resolution is what separates them. The chain does not moralize the label — it scores calibration against the realized outcome.

Everything else on the chain — code proposals, norms, generic markets — is downstream: implementation bets and rules given one or more core hypotheses. Core predictions answer: why does this IPS exist, and what would prove it right or wrong?

Mirror to aion-core core tasks

See core_tasks_priority.md.

Problem (today)

PoT can host permissionless society markets, but nothing names the small set of research questions the society treats as identity-defining — the inter-node analogue of “why we built this company.” Hub and agents cannot tell a side bet from the hypothesis the project is trying to prove or disprove.

Examples (wording for on-chain markets)

Core predictions should be falsifiable and outcome-resolvable (height, date, or observable metric):

• “By 2030, ≥50% of US households with broadband subscribe to a video streaming service.” (Netflix-shaped)
• “By 2005, web users perform ≥3 searches per week on average.” (Google-shaped, historical)
• “By height 100 000, ≥3 independent PoT chains each hold ≥10 active participants with >1 000 mT from KL scoring (not genesis only).” (meta: PoT works)

Contrast with a generic society market (not core): “Will Bitcoin exceed $100k this year?” — interesting, but not why the chain exists unless the society adopts it as a core hypothesis.

Early accurate bettors on the core outcome gain mT; overconfident wrong bettors lose influence until resolution — the same mechanism as any society market, but standing on core predictions should weigh more in hub prominence and agent prioritization (policy, not yet protocol).

Principles

1. Hypothesis, not trivia — nominations must articulate why this question defines the society, not just a catchy forecast. Reject at adoption if it is a side bet.
2. Skin in the game for nomination — proposer locks stake mT. Adoption returns stake plus reward; rejection slashes stake. Filters spam and cheap delusions.
3. Two markets, two questions — (A) Should this become a core prediction for this chain? (B) Is the hypothesis true? Only (B) uses the world-model resolver; (A) uses society adoption (like norms, but for factual identity).
4. Bounded catalogue — cap active core predictions (max_core_predictions in ChainParams); typically 1–3 live hypotheses, like a research program’s stated aims.
5. Genesis seed — operators declare initial core predictions at chain birth (the reason the chain was created), like initial_accounts.
6. Do not conflate with norms — core predictions are facts about the world; norms are values we choose to bind. “We require peer review” is a norm; “Peer review improves merge quality” could be a core prediction.

Proposed lifecycle

flowchart TD
  nom["Member submits CorePredictionNom\n(hypothesis, rationale, outcomes, resolver, stake_mtrust, p_adopt)"]
  adoptMkt["Adoption market\nADOPT | REJECT"]
  reject["REJECT → slash stake"]
  adopt["ADOPT → spawn society market\nmark as core"]
  reward["Return stake + adoption bonus to proposer"]
  outcomeMkt["Active core prediction market\nbets until resolution"]
  resolve["Resolver declares y\nKL score all bettors"]

  nom --> adoptMkt
  adoptMkt --> reject
  adoptMkt --> adopt
  adopt --> reward
  adopt --> outcomeMkt
  outcomeMkt --> resolve

Adoption reward (sketch):

where \(n_{\text{adopt voters}}\) counts distinct non-author ADOPT bettors — rewarding nominations that mobilize real deliberation.

Rejection penalty: stake_mtrust removed from proposer balance. Default: burn (Jensen tax) or credit to REJECT bettors proportionally to their KL contribution on the adoption market.

Protocol sketch

Normative: spec.md §18. Summary:

ChainParams extensions:

max_core_predictions:     u32      // active cap
min_core_nom_stake_mtrust: u64     // minimum skin in the game
adoption_bonus_base_mtrust: u64    // reward on successful adoption
core_adopt_threshold_ppm:  u32      // e.g. 700_000 = 70% ADOPT
min_core_adopt_voters:     u32

Git refs (mirror markets/norms):

refs/pot/core-predictions/noms/<nom_id>
refs/pot/core-predictions/adopt-votes/<nom_id>/<voter_fp>
refs/pot/core-predictions/active/<market_id>

CLI (sketch):

git pot core nominate --as ALICE \
  --hypothesis "People want to stream movies at home" \
  --rationale "Netflix-shaped: justify catalog + CDN spend" \
  --outcomes yes,no --resolver RESOLVER_FP --closes-at-height 50000 \
  --stake 5000 --p-adopt 0.6

git pot core list                    # active + pending nominations
git pot core bet-adopt --nom ID --probs 0.8,0.2
git pot core bet --market ID --probs 0.7,0.3   # outcome market (same as society)

Hub: Core predictions section at top of Markets tab (badge distinct from generic society markets).

MCP / pot agent next: prioritize actions on open core predictions when the agent holds mT.

Relation to existing types

A adopted core prediction is a society market under the hood, plus registry metadata (hypothesis statement, research rationale) and nomination economics.

7. Operator checklist (fill per chain)

Copy and complete for each deployment:

## Chain: <slug>

### Identity
- chain_id:
- genesis height / perpetual_from_height:
- explorer_url:

### Substrate (Φ)
- Canonical git remote:
- Merge policy (perpetual branch rank / manual advance):

### World model (facts)
- **Core predictions (hypotheses the chain exists to test):**
  - H1: …
  - H2: …
- Other society markets (side bets): …
- Resolvers (pubkeys / policies): …

### Values
- Adopted norms (`refs/pot/norms/*`): …

### Members
- Initial endowment policy:
- Active participants (count / top mT holders):

### Power routing
- alpha_mtrust_per_nat:
- K confirmations:
- author_cap_mtrust (branch self-bets):

### Denominator
- Compute attestation policy (β):
- Open conflicts (Γ):

### Off-chain
- Hub discussions enabled:
- aion-core mirror chain_id:

8. Reading order

1. docs/glossary.md — FPE vocabulary
2. docs/geopolitics/predictive_governance_and_pot.md — essay ↔︎ protocol
3. whitepaper.md — PoT mechanism and scoring
4. data_content.md — payload field index
5. perpetual_branch_governance_v04.md — substrate prediction channel
6. agent_onboarding.md — participant workflow
7. aion-core/docs/architecture/core_tasks_priority.md — intra-node mirror of core predictions

9. Implementation status

Track implementation in spec.md §18.